Patrick Skinner

Research Scientist II

I study the dynamics and prediction of severe thunderstorms. The majority of my current research is devoted towards development of methods to visualize and verify ensemble guidance of thunderstorm hazards produced by the Warn-on-Forecast project. These methods aim to quantify forecast improvements to help guide research on convective-scale data assimilation and to provide operational meteorologists with useful real-time forecast products. I also maintain an interest in supercell dynamics, in particular horizontal momentum ‘surges’ within the rear-flank downdraft of supercells and their impact on low-level mesocyclone intensity and evolution.